Prophet Center – July 18, 2025

Your edge in a world where the odds never sleep.

July 18, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

🧠 Top Moves Today

🟩 Rate Cut Bets Rise Despite July Pause
Polymarket and CME traders agree the Fed will hold rates steady this month, but September cut odds climbed to ~50% after cooling CPI data and Trump’s public pressure (Reuters, 2025a). The market is split, reflecting inflation caution vs. political momentum.
View Market ›

🟥 Recession Bets Collapse
U.S. recession odds for 2025 are down sharply — just ~20% on Polymarket and Kalshi, down from 66% earlier this year (Business Insider, 2025). Traders are aligning with economic optimism and soft landing narratives.
Recession Coverage ›

🎾 Wimbledon Surprise: Sinner Stuns Alcaraz
Italy’s Jannik Sinner won the Wimbledon men’s final on July 13, upsetting favorite Carlos Alcaraz. Polymarket's title market settled “Yes” for Sinner, rewarding long-shot bettors (Reuters, 2025b).
Final Recap ›

📈 Bitcoin Hits All-Time High
Bitcoin surged to an ATH of $123,153 on July 14. Ethereum passed $3,000, and total crypto market cap is nearing $3.8T, fueled by ETF inflows of $2.7B in one week (Reuters, 2025c).
Crypto Surge Details ›

🔍 Market to Watch: Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest 🌭

Kalshi and Polymarket users watched a betting coup unfold in the New York Democratic mayoral primary. Long-shot candidate Zohran Mamdani jumped from ~7% odds to victory on election night, crushing favorite Andrew Cuomo. One trader turned $3,426 into $85,650 after betting Mamdani at 4% (Fast Company, 2025).
Read the Story ›

💰 Smart Bet of the Day: Fade the Bitcoin Frenzy

Bitcoin > $100K is now priced at ~94% odds on Manifold. That leaves only ~6% chance of a pullback — potentially undervalued if you think profit-taking or policy headlines could cool the rally. A “No” position here could return 16x if BTC closes July below $100K (Manifold, 2025).
Trade the Market ›
(Not financial advice.)

📊 Quick Stats & Sentiment

  • 🔁 Top Sector: Sports – Kalshi reports 79% of volume this year comes from sports markets (Bitget News, 2025)

  • 📈 Fastest Gainer: Manifold’s “Bitcoin ≥ $121K” market (+20 pts in 3 days)

  • 💬 Community Insight: “Prediction markets are biased — they mostly reflect young, crypto-native male sentiment.” – u/Tipppptoe, r/FiveThirtyEight

🧵 From the Community

“I put $3,400 on Mamdani when he was at 4%. $85K payout. Still shaking.”
— Kalshi user, via Fast Company, July 17, 2025
Full Article ›

  • 📉 Fed Rate-Cut Debate Remains Heated – Reuters

  • 🚀 Bitcoin Breaks $123K All-Time High – Reuters

  • 🎯 Biggest Payout in Kalshi History? – Fast Company

⚠️ Disclaimer

This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Prophet Center does not provide financial, investment, or legal advice. All commentary is editorial and should not be treated as financial guidance. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.

📚 References

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